SANDOWN QUADDIE 27th May 2017
MY SELECTIONS
Today I am using the tips of Melbourne pro Trevor Lawson who posted on the Champion Picks website.
Trevor’s selections were :
3, 5, 10 / 1, 2, 3, 7 / 1, 4, 5, 8 / 1, 3, 7, 11, 14
$240 for 100%
However because of scratchings Trevor’s combinations were reduced to just 192
3, 5, 10 / 1, 2, 3, 7 / 1, 4, 5, 8 / 1, 3, 11, 14
$192 for 100%
THE CALCULATION
I have selected WA TAB for bet placement. It may not be known to many punters but WA TAB (tabtouch.com.au) allow a minimum of 1 cent bets with an increment of 1 cent … when betting online. This allows 50 x the precision of bet size calculations compared with NSW/VIC TAB with a 50 cent bet minimum. But on all TABs the minimum flexi bet % is still 1%.
The odds I have used in the calculation were the maximum bookie odds. However because my algorithm normalises the odds to 100% it’s only the relative difference in odds between horses that makes a difference.
MY MAXIMUM DIVVY SELECTED
No maximum dividend is needed as I’m using just 192 combinations.
MY MINIMUM DIVVY SELECTED
As I’m comparing a Box Quaddie with a Dutch book Quaddie no combination will be excluded based on price.
Box Quaddie VS Dutch book Quaddie
Based on bookie win odds, the 192 combinations have an estimated dividend range between $122 and $11,656. That means if you took a Box Quaddie for $192 your payback would be somewhere within this range. But using my Quaddie calculator and betting each combination according to its estimated dividend the estimated return (no matter which combination wins will be about $815 (the estimated range is between $806 and $877).
Below is a snapshot of my Quaddie calculator worksheet and the list of the 192 bets can be found in this text file >>> Quaddie_Trevor27May
Hopefully Trevor’s selections will salute and we can compare the profit from the 2 different strategies
SO WHAT HAPPENED ?
Trevor’s selections were successful with the winning combo being 10, 03, 04, 01. This combo was 7th in order of estimated dividend . My calculator estimated its dividend to be $224 but it only paid $168 on VIC / WA TAB (even worse on NSW paying $150.50).
- So using a box quaddie you would have outlaid $192 and got back 1 x $168 for a loss of $34
- But using a dutch quaddie you would have outlaid $192 and got back 3.59 x $168 = $603 for a profit of $411
WHY DO THE BETS HAVE A NEGATIVE EXPECTED RETURN ?
There is a 19% chance of getting back an average $815. There is an 81% chance of losing $192.
Doing the maths gives an Expected Return of 19% x $815 -> $155 which means an average loss of $37 on the outlay of $192. This is a loss of around 20% on each $1 invested and represents the TAB take out margin. This is the margin every punter has to overcome to make a profit.
Of course punters punt in the expectation that their bets will win more frequently than expected based on the market odds. And that is when profits will emerge.